Every CS:GO Major is a battlefield of pressure, momentum, and sharp draws. While top teams hog headlines, the real betting edge can come from underdogs who match up well—and come in with favourable form. This year, there’s one dark horse that stands out in our power rankings—an under-the-radar squad with map versatility, recent confidence, and odds that seem too generous.
This isn’t hype. It’s built on data, matchups, and tournament psychology. Let’s dive into why this scrappy mixed roster could be the value play.
Power Rankings Snapshot
Here’s a quick view of where several underdogs sit in our Major power rankings:
| Team | Rank | Strengths | Odds (Moneyline) |
| Rogue | 6 | Aggressive executes, YEKINDAR’s AWP | +450 |
| Apeks | 8 | Map diversity, cold-paced control | +550 |
| Movistar Riders | 10 | Star backing duo; beast on Vertigo | +700 |
| paiN | 9 | Home crowd charging, underrated T-sides | +800 |
| Heroic | 5 | Experienced roster, deep Major runs | +300 |
Rogue emerges as the top pick here—solid mix of firepower, recent tournament results, and matchups that avoid elite brass. Their odds provide real betting room.
Why Rogue Looks Like Value Right Now
Strong map pool – Historically good on Dust2, Inferno, Overpass; covers Core vetoes
Recent run mechanics – Semifinal and playoff runs at PGL events; no flukes
Team chemistry – Key IGL shift mid-season improved mid-round decision-making
Match draws – Bracket likely avoids top‑3 seeds until semis, increasing upset potential
These factors coalesce into a scenario where their implied win rate (18–20%) feels underpriced by moneyline standards.
Map Matchup & Draw Dynamics
Early Major drafts favour best-of-one chaos and veto strategy. Rogue:
– Uses standard veto strategy allowing flexibility vs heavy ban-heavy opponents
– Handles overpass and injury-riddled maps better than many other mid‑tier squads
– Has shown dominance as T-side favorites against baseline tiers
If they avoid Astralis, G2, or FaZe early, Rogue’s bracket is favourable.
Props and Strategy
The value isn’t only in outright. Rogue represents edge across multiple markets:
Outright win – moneyline +450 is tempting if bracket stays clean
Round handicap – +1.5 maps in best-of-three appears undervalued at +150
Top-20 placement – Easily doable with one upset in group stage
Series total rounds Over/Under – Rogue consistently scrap in rounds, hitting high round totals
Their blend of aggression and control makes them a sleeper across live markets too.
How Sharp Bettors Are Positioning
These are common patterns being used by sharp bettors:
– Pre-tournament outright – Rogue at +450 entered heavy tickets early
– Map-level line picks – Especially on Dust2 or Overpass vs teams with weaker CT sides
– Live trades – If early series goes close (2–2), sharp money piles in before sudden death
– Bracket hop hedging – Back Rogue outrights first, hedge if they hit semis by halfway through group
Two Other Underdogs Worth Watching
Movistar Riders: +700, love on Vertigo, temperamental but explosive, especially vs NA/EU matchups
paiN: +800, local fan energy in major qualifiers counts; strong crosshair play vs tier‑2 squads
These teams aren’t as safe as Rogue, but they fit aggressive playoff profiles and can reap big returns in prop markets.